A Dynamic Model Approach to Estimating Events Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Gowa District

Abstract

Introduction: Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a public health problem in tropical and subtropical countries. The low ability to anticipate the incidence of DHF is due to the unavailability of a reliable prediction model for dengue fever incidence. This study aims to estimate dengue fever incidence in Gowa Regency in 2020-2040 using a dynamic model approach.

Methods: This study uses the Research and Development (R&D) method with a dynamic systems approach. The research was conducted in Gowa Regency with the research sample in dengue case data in Gowa Regency in 2014-2018. Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is carried out to determine the right scenario in controlling dengue cases. The prediction model for dengue fever was analyzed using the PowerSim program.

Results: The jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and counseling are crucial elements of DHF prevention in the Gowa Regency. The estimated average incidence of dengue fever for 20 years in Gowa Regency has decreased based on dynamic model simulations by implementing the Jumantik scenario (70.8%), 3M Plus (78.9%), early warning systems (86.2%), extension (73, 81%) and the combined scenario (99.14%).

Conclusion: The prevention and control of dengue fever in the Gowa Regency is more effective by combining jumantik, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and counseling programs.