Epidemic Model Simulation for Corona Pandemic in Tamil Nadu

Abstract

Forecasting and spreading of Covid-19 in Tamil Nadu state is demonstrated by simulating an epidemiology model Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Demised (SIRD) model. Implicit analytical solution is applied for some parts of the model and for other parts finite difference methods are used. On the basis of SIRD model, values of coefficient of infection, coefficient of morality and coefficient of recovery can be found. In addition to the calibration of the model the ratio of the average rate of death to the average rate of recovery for the pandemic in Tamil Nadu is calculated. For this model, data is collected from Tamil Nadu Health and Family Welfare Department. The data has number of infected cases, death cases, recovered cases and hospitalized cases per day in Tamil Nadu State. The prediction results give good analysis and better understanding of the spread of the disease in the state. Based on the results, it is obvious that as the number of days increases that cumulative count of infected patients are also increased. But in the pandemic a fall would be     expected after certain period of time. However this prediction model enables us to make quick response of the pandemic and get more insight about the data.