Prediction of Long-Term Gastrectomy Outcomes in Gastric Cancer

Abstract

Aim: Assessment of prognostic factors affecting long-term outcomes among patients with gastric cancer.

Methods: Retrospective analysis included long-term outcomes of 1,000 patients – a training group (850 patients), test group (50 patients), validation group (100 patients). Cox’s model was applied to study the effect of combined factors on patient survival.

Results: The risk of not surviving a 5-year period (p = 0.002) increases with patient’s age, OR = 1.02 (95 % CI: 1.01–1.04) for every lived year. The risk of not surviving a 5-year period increases (p < 0.001) with a one-point change in T-category, OR = 1.6 (95 % CI: 1.3–2.0), and N-category (p < 0.001), OR = 1.5 (95 % CI: 1.3–1.7). The higher risk (p = 0.001) is also associated with postoperative complications, OR = 2.2 (95 % CI: 1.4 – 3.5). The risk of death was higher for males (p = 0.028), HR = 1.18 (95 % CI: 1.02–1.37).

Conclusions: Long-term outcomes of gastrectomy are affected by patient age, Т- and N-categories, and postoperative complications. Risk of death increases with age for every lived year and is higher for males.